Adverse Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination: Machine Learning and Statistical Approach to Identify and Classify Incidences of Morbidity and Postvaccination Reactogenicity.

Good vaccine safety and reliability are essential for successfully countering infectious disease spread. A small but significant number of adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines have been reported. Here, we aim to identify possible common factors in such adverse reactions to enable strategies that reduce the incidence of such reactions by using patient data to classify and characterise those at risk. We examined patient medical histories and data documenting postvaccination effects and outcomes. The data analyses were conducted using a range of statistical approaches followed by a series of machine learning classification algorithms. In most cases, a group of similar features was significantly associated with poor patient reactions. These included patient prior illnesses, admission to hospitals and SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. The analyses indicated that patient age, gender, taking other medications, type-2 diabetes, hypertension, allergic history and heart disease are the most significant pre-existing factors associated with the risk of poor outcome. In addition, long duration of hospital treatments, dyspnoea, various kinds of pain, headache, cough, asthenia, and physical disability were the most significant clinical predictors. The machine learning classifiers that are trained with medical history were also able to predict patients with complication-free vaccination and have an accuracy score above 90%. Our study identifies profiles of individuals that may need extra monitoring and care (e.g., vaccination at a location with access to comprehensive clinical support) to reduce negative outcomes through classification approaches.

From Infection to Immunity: Understanding the Response to SARS-CoV2 Through In-Silico Modeling.

Background: Immune system conditions of the patient is a key factor in COVID-19 infection survival. A growing number of studies have focused on immunological determinants to develop better biomarkers for therapies. Aim: Studies of the insurgence of immunity is at the core of both SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development and therapies. This paper attempts to describe the insurgence (and the span) of immunity in COVID-19 at the population level by developing an in-silico model. We simulate the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and analyze the impact of infecting viral load, affinity to the ACE2 receptor, and age in an artificially infected population on the course of the disease. Methods: We use a stochastic agent-based immune simulation platform to construct a virtual cohort of infected individuals with age-dependent varying degrees of immune competence. We use a parameter set to reproduce known inter-patient variability and general epidemiological statistics. Results: By assuming the viremia at day 30 of the infection to be the proxy for lethality, we reproduce in-silico several clinical observations and identify critical factors in the statistical evolution of the infection. In particular, we evidence the importance of the humoral response over the cytotoxic response and find that the antibody titers measured after day 25 from the infection are a prognostic factor for determining the clinical outcome of the infection. Our modeling framework uses COVID-19 infection to demonstrate the actionable effectiveness of modeling the immune response at individual and population levels. The model developed can explain and interpret observed patterns of infection and makes verifiable temporal predictions. Within the limitations imposed by the simulated environment, this work proposes quantitatively that the great variability observed in the patient outcomes in real life can be the mere result of subtle variability in the infecting viral load and immune competence in the population. In this work, we exemplify how computational modeling of immune response provides an important view to discuss hypothesis and design new experiments, in particular paving the way to further investigations about the duration of vaccine-elicited immunity especially in the view of the blundering effect of immunosenescence.

Pathogenetic profiling of COVID-19 and SARS-like viruses.

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has recently emerged, causing COVID-19 outbreaks and significant societal/global disruption. Importantly, COVID-19 infection resembles SARS-like complications. However, the lack of knowledge about the underlying genetic mechanisms of COVID-19 warrants the development of prospective control measures. In this study, we employed whole-genome alignment and digital DNA-DNA hybridization analyses to assess genomic linkage between 2019-nCoV and other coronaviruses. To understand the pathogenetic behavior of 2019-nCoV, we compared gene expression datasets of viral infections closest to 2019-nCoV with four COVID-19 clinical presentations followed by functional enrichment of shared dysregulated genes. Potential chemical antagonists were also identified using protein-chemical interaction analysis. Based on phylogram analysis, the 2019-nCoV was found genetically closest to SARS-CoVs. In addition, we identified 562 upregulated and 738 downregulated genes (adj. P ≤ 0.05) with SARS-CoV infection. Among the dysregulated genes, SARS-CoV shared ≤19 upregulated and ≤22 downregulated genes with each of different COVID-19 complications. Notably, upregulation of BCL6 and PFKFB3 genes was common to SARS-CoV, pneumonia and severe acute respiratory syndrome, while they shared CRIP2, NSG1 and TNFRSF21 genes in downregulation. Besides, 14 genes were common to different SARS-CoV comorbidities that might influence COVID-19 disease. We also observed similarities in pathways that can lead to COVID-19 and SARS-CoV diseases. Finally, protein-chemical interactions suggest cyclosporine, resveratrol and quercetin as promising drug candidates against COVID-19 as well as other SARS-like viral infections. The pathogenetic analyses, along with identified biomarkers, signaling pathways and chemical antagonists, could prove useful for novel drug development in the fight against the current global 2019-nCoV pandemic.

Arbitrary Scale Super-Resolution for Medical Images.

Single image super-resolution (SISR) aims to obtain a high-resolution output from one low-resolution image. Currently, deep learning-based SISR approaches have been widely discussed in medical image processing, because of their potential to achieve high-quality, high spatial resolution images without the cost of additional scans. However, most existing methods are designed for scale-specific SR tasks and are unable to generalize over magnification scales. In this paper, we propose an approach for medical image arbitrary-scale super-resolution (MIASSR), in which we couple meta-learning with generative adversarial networks (GANs) to super-resolve medical images at any scale of magnification in [Formula: see text]. Compared to state-of-the-art SISR algorithms on single-modal magnetic resonance (MR) brain images (OASIS-brains) and multi-modal MR brain images (BraTS), MIASSR achieves comparable fidelity performance and the best perceptual quality with the smallest model size. We also employ transfer learning to enable MIASSR to tackle SR tasks of new medical modalities, such as cardiac MR images (ACDC) and chest computed tomography images (COVID-CT). The source code of our work is also public. Thus, MIASSR has the potential to become a new foundational pre-/post-processing step in clinical image analysis tasks such as reconstruction, image quality enhancement, and segmentation.

How artificial intelligence and machine learning can help healthcare systems respond to COVID-19.

The COVID-19 global pandemic is a threat not only to the health of millions of individuals, but also to the stability of infrastructure and economies around the world. The disease will inevitably place an overwhelming burden on healthcare systems that cannot be effectively dealt with by existing facilities or responses based on conventional approaches. We believe that a rigorous clinical and societal response can only be mounted by using intelligence derived from a variety of data sources to better utilize scarce healthcare resources, provide personalized patient management plans, inform policy, and expedite clinical trials. In this paper, we introduce five of the most important challenges in responding to COVID-19 and show how each of them can be addressed by recent developments in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI). We argue that the integration of these techniques into local, national, and international healthcare systems will save lives, and propose specific methods by which implementation can happen swiftly and efficiently. We offer to extend these resources and knowledge to assist policymakers seeking to implement these techniques.

A machine learning model to identify early stage symptoms of SARS-Cov-2 infected patients.

The recent outbreak of the respiratory ailment COVID-19 caused by novel coronavirus SARS-Cov2 is a severe and urgent global concern. In the absence of effective treatments, the main containment strategy is to reduce the contagion by the isolation of infected individuals; however, isolation of unaffected individuals is highly undesirable. To help make rapid decisions on treatment and isolation needs, it would be useful to determine which features presented by suspected infection cases are the best predictors of a positive diagnosis. This can be done by analyzing patient characteristics, case trajectory, comorbidities, symptoms, diagnosis, and outcomes. We developed a model that employed supervised machine learning algorithms to identify the presentation features predicting COVID-19 disease diagnoses with high accuracy. Features examined included details of the individuals concerned, e.g., age, gender, observation of fever, history of travel, and clinical details such as the severity of cough and incidence of lung infection. We implemented and applied several machine learning algorithms to our collected data and found that the XGBoost algorithm performed with the highest accuracy (>85%) to predict and select features that correctly indicate COVID-19 status for all age groups. Statistical analyses revealed that the most frequent and significant predictive symptoms are fever (41.1%), cough (30.3%), lung infection (13.1%) and runny nose (8.43%). While 54.4% of people examined did not develop any symptoms that could be used for diagnosis, our work indicates that for the remainder, our predictive model could significantly improve the prediction of COVID-19 status, including at early stages of infection.